How the numbers are derived

The Joe Rogan Body Count is presently calculated as 0.85 times excess deaths in the United States since June 2021.

Some assumptions that underlie this model:

Observations:

Additional reading:

Taking all of this into account, 85% is a conservative estimate of the percentage of excess deaths that were preventable.

Excess death counts are obtained from github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality. Their data uses an ordinal system for numbering weeks of the year. To convert these to end-of-week dates, Joe Rogan Body Count uses the following spreadsheet formula that aligns with the dates in the original CDC source:

=DATE(year, 1, 3) - WEEKDAY(DATE(year, 1, 3)) + weeknum * 7

Population measurements are from Gapminder version 6 unless otherwise noted. The years used are 1862, 1917, 1918, 1943, 1951, 1970, and 2011.

Future work

Opioid overdoses have been rising in the United States and are a smaller but still slightly significant contributor to excess deaths. Some of these represent indirect effects of the pandemic (economic factors and social isolation), while others do not. Given their indirect relationship and the difficulty of teasing out causality, it would make sense to deduct them from the total death estimates here. If you are aware of good sources from which weekly excess opioid death counts can be derived, please reach out.

About the name

There is no one, single source of vaccine misinformation nor one, single cause of vaccine skepticism. As a significant "influencer", Joe Rogan is used here metonymically to represent the various factors that have led to failure to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the United States.